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BCRP Decision Tomorrow, Expected On Hold

PERU
  • Peru’s central bank are unanimously expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday, leaving the reference rate at 7.75%. In the March statement the BCRP reiterated that “a downward trend in year-on-year inflation is forecast since March, with a return to the target range in the fourth quarter of this year.” March CPI did indeed fall from 8.65% to 8.40% although this was notably above the 8.00% surveyed median estimate. March Lima unemployment rate and February economic activity data are both scheduled for release this coming Saturday.
  • Goldman Sachs expect the MPC to leave the policy rate unchanged at 7.75% and to reiterate the vigilant guidance from the Mar meeting that it remains open to resuming tightening if warranted.
  • Although the MPC recently reaffirmed that the “pause” at the Feb meeting did not necessarily imply the end of the tightening cycle, Goldman Sachs hold the view that the bar to resume tightening is high, barring a deterioration of the political and social backdrop that generates a negative shock to the capital account and the PEN, and an unexpected reacceleration of inflation that could dislocate expectations further. GS believe this bar for resuming tightening has not been reached.
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