Bear Cycle Extends

Equity markets are in a clear downtrend and indications are that, from a technical perspective, the broader bear cycle is not over. A number of technical trend signals continue to highlight a bearish condition.

• Moving average studies - the 20- and 50-day EMAs - are in a bear mode condition and recent corrections have stalled at price levels around the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is regarded as a key resistance when the market is trending down.
• A broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lows also clearly highlights a bearish direction and a sell-off to fresh cycle lows in a number of indices this week, has confirmed an extension of this price pattern.

With the trend needle pointing south, the next key support levels and potential objectives worth monitoring, are:

• S&P E-Minis (cont):
  • SUPP 1: 3656.50 Low Feb 1 2021
  • SUPP 2: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• NASDAQ 100 E-Mini (cont)
  • SUPP 1: 10942.25 Low Nov 2 2020
  • SUPP 2: 10501.75 61.8% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 uptrend
• DJIA Mini (cont)
  • SUPP 1: 29671.03 38.2% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 major uptrend
  • SUPP 2: 27459.00 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 major uptrend
• EUROSTOXX 50 (U2):
  • SUPP 1: 3309.00 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
  • SUPP 2: 3064.40 61.8% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle (cont)
• FTSE 100 IDX Fut (cont)
  • SUPP 1: 7000.00 Psychological round number
  • SUPP 2: 6722.50 Low Mar 7 2022