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Bear Flattening As 2s10s Hits Lows Since Mid April

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys are currently close to lows across the curve, bear flattening as 2Y yields of ~4.42% push fresh highs since the early days of regional banking woes. Fitch placed the US on negative ratings watch as the deadline for an increase in the debt ceiling approaches. Whilst broadly in line with EU FI, Treasuries significantly outperform Gilts which see further post-CPI adjustment.
  • 2YY +4.5bp at 4.421%, 5YY +3.5bp at 3.815%, 10YY +1.5bp at 3.757% and 30YY +0.2bp at 3.988%. 2s10s just off a low of -66.4bps touched a low since Apr 19 otherwise last seen since Mar 16.
  • TYM3 trades 12 ticks lower at 113-01+ just slightly off lows of 113-00. Having cleared support at 113-04 (May 23 low), it stopped just shy of 112-30 (61.8% retrace of Mar 2-24 rally) after which lies 112-21 (Mar 13 low).
  • Fedspeak: Barkin ('24 voter) at 0950ET, Collins (non-voter) at 1030ET.
  • Data: GDP incl core PCE Q1 2nd release (0830ET), weekly initial claims (0830ET), Chicago Fed nat activity index Apr (0830ET), pending home sales Apr (1000ET), Kansas City mfg activity May (1100ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $35B 7Y Note auction (91282CHF1) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $35B 4W, $35B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET
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