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Bear Steepening Amid Risk On Move

US TSYS

The Treasury curve has bear steepened to open the week, with futures a little softer.

  • A fairly risk-on Asia-Pac and European session, with equities rising and the dollar continuing to retrace from Friday's 2021 highs.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 0.2303%, 5-Yr is up 1.6bps at 0.7981%, 10-Yr is up 2.2bps at 1.2768%, and 30-Yr is up 2.3bps at 1.8917%.
  • Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) down 4/32 at 134-00 (L: 133-30 / H: 134-06). 133-29 is the Aug 18 low and support.
  • Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index at 0830ET is followed by flash August PMIs at 0945ET, then existing home sales at 1000ET. Supply consists of $99B 13-/26-week bill auctions at 1130ET. NY Fed buys ~$3.225B of 7-10Y Tsys.
  • No Fed speakers scheduled until Chair Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday (1000ET - the conference is now virtual vs in-person, as announced late Fri). BBG sources piece out over the weekend saying Treas Sec Yellen supports Powell's re-appointment.
  • Some attention on the $3.5T budget resolution, with Democrats sparring internally about how to proceed. House Democratic leaders meet this afternoon, with Democratic Caucus meeting Tuesday 0900ET.
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