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Bear Steeper Partly On Post-Thanksgiving Catch Up, But Off Lows

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys are off cheapest levels but maintain a bear steepening on the day, sitting 3.8-6.2bps cheaper across the curve with 2s10s at -47bps (+2bps) vs an earlier high of -45bps. Moves are a combination of post-Thanksgiving catch-up after yesterday’s Gilts/EGBs-led cheapening, before further EU-focused spillover today.
  • TYZ3 at 108-15 (-11) trades at the low end of today’s range with a low of 108-12, extending yesterday’s decline for a step closer to support at 108-05+ (50-day EMA).
  • A bullish theme is deemed intact with the latest pullback considered corrective, with resistance at the bull trigger of 109-08+ (Nov 17 high). Volumes are artificially inflated by quarterly roll activity.
  • Data: S&P Global US PMIs (09450ET), likely receiving more attention than usual with such a light docket.
  • No Tsy issuance.

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