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Bear Steeper With Powell, Jobless Claims and Issuance Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a cheapening impulse through European hours, driving seen a sizeable bear steepening with major benchmarks between 1 and 5.5bp cheaper. The long end leads the cheapening with 30Y supply later on.
  • It sees 2s10s +2.5bps higher at -41bp to push back against yesterday’s near 10bp flattening.
  • TYZ3 at 108-05+ trades just off a low of 108-04, but is only back in the middle of yesterday’s range. Volumes are again on the elevated side at over 400k, starting to become more typical in recent weeks. Resistance is seen at 108-25 (Nov 3 high) and support at 107-08 (20-day EMA).
  • Data: Weekly jobless claims data headline for data at 0830ET, having had some large market impact in past weeks. We expect continuing claims to again be watched particularly closely after prior strong increases.
  • Fedspeak: See the full schedule in the STIR bullet. Powell headlines and there is also an in-depth discussion with Barkin in the MNI Webcast, for which you can register to attend here.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $24B 30Y Bond auction (912810TV0) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $95B 4W, $85B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET
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