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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
Betting markets are seeing the May 14 Turkish presidential election tighten as incumbent President Recep Erdogan closes the gap to opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
- According to data from Smarkets, Kılıçdaroğlu remains the slight favourite with an implied probability of 51% of winning. Erdogan is giving an implied probability of 49.5% of winning.
- Last week, Erdogan promised discounted gas bills for households, seen as a part of a broader strategy of financial giveaways designed to peel of votes.
- Erdogan said on Thursday at a ceremony in Turkey’s northern province of Zonguldak: “We are providing free natural gas used in households’ kitchens and hot water for a year.”
- Bloomberg: "Easing energy bills could help boost the president’s popularity ahead of the May 14 vote, at which Erdogan faces a united opposition pressing him on the dire situation of the economy."
Figure 1: Turkish Presidential Election Result
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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