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Betting Markets See Turkish Presidential Election Tightening


Betting markets are seeing the May 14 Turkish presidential election tighten as incumbent President Recep Erdogan closes the gap to opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

  • According to data from Smarkets, Kılıçdaroğlu remains the slight favourite with an implied probability of 51% of winning. Erdogan is giving an implied probability of 49.5% of winning.
  • Last week, Erdogan promised discounted gas bills for households, seen as a part of a broader strategy of financial giveaways designed to peel of votes.
  • Erdogan said on Thursday at a ceremony in Turkey’s northern province of Zonguldak: “We are providing free natural gas used in households’ kitchens and hot water for a year.”
  • Bloomberg: "Easing energy bills could help boost the president’s popularity ahead of the May 14 vote, at which Erdogan faces a united opposition pressing him on the dire situation of the economy."

Figure 1: Turkish Presidential Election Result

Source: Smarkets

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