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CZECHIA
Data from Smarkets shows former Chief of the General Staff of the Czech Army and chair of the NATO Military Committee Petr Pavel as the strong frontrunner to win the country's presidency ahead of the first round election taking place 13-14 January.
- Pavel, an independent backed by the centre-right Spolu alliance of PM Petr Fiala, holds a 59.9% implied probability of winning the presidential election.
- Former Prime Minister Andrej Babis, acquitted in a subsidy fraud trial on 10 Jan, sits in second place with a 20,0% implied probability of winning. The third-placed candidate, rector of Mendel University Brno Danuse Nerudova - also an independent backed by Spolu - has a 17.0% implied probability of winning according to bettors.
- The Czech presidency is a largely ceremonial position, but does hold powers in appointing the PM, gov't ministers, central bank members, and nominating judges for the Constitutional Court.
- A win for Pavel would mark a stark contrast to the presidency of the incumbent, Milos Zeman. Pavel, as the former head of a NATO Committee seen as staunchly pro-Western in outlook, compared to Zeman who prior to the war in Ukraine was viewed as a relatively pro-Kremlin figure.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Czech Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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