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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ARGENTINA
Political betting markets showing the race for the presidency as a dead heat, with Economy Minister Sergio Massa and libertarian candidate Javier Milei each afforded a 50.0% implied probability of winning the 19 Nov run-off according to electionbettingodds.com (which compiles data from Betfair, Predictit, Smarkets, and Polymarket).
- Comes after an AtlasIntelopinion pollcarried out 5-9 Nov gave Milei a lead of 48.6% to 44.6% among all voters. Polls from AtlasIntel garner significant focus given that the Brazil-based outlet was the sole pollster that correctly projected Massa coming in first place in the 22 Oct first round.
- The two candidates held their sole head-to-head debate of the campaign on 12 Nov in anill-tempered affair in Buenos Aires. El Pais: "Massa besieged his opponent with questions about the program he presented before the Electoral Tribunal. He quizzed him on whether he was going to eliminate subsidies, privatize the state’s gas and oil fields, privatize the rivers and seas, dollarize the economy and eliminate the Central Bank."
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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