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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Betting and prediction markets are largely alignedin slightly favouring Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, following a successful reset of the Democratic Party presidential campaign.
- PredictIt currently shows the Harris with a relatively strong 10-point lead, but all the data, across the markets, falls comfortably within 'toss-up' range.
- Aggregator ElectionBettingOdds, shows a 12% swing to Harris in the past week, which may reflect Harris' preservation of party unity with her VP selection, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) and a faltering Trump campaign which has included several high-profile missteps and a shaky start for VP nominee JD Vance.
- The pivot towards Harris appears to support suggestions that the 2024 political environment is slightly tilted in favour of Democrats, which may explain why the Biden-Trump race remained tight despite persistent voter concerns over Biden's candidacy.
- The NYT national polling average currently shows Harris with a one-point advantage over Trump, but we expect that gap may expand during the day as several high-quality polls, including a bullish survey from Marquette Law School, are added to the average.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election, Betting Odds
Source: RealClearPolitics
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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