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Bettors Continue To See Harris As Slight Favourite Following First Debate

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Vice Presidential Kamala Harris maintains her slight post-debate edge over former President Donald Trump, according to data from betting markets.

  • Election Betting Odds, a site that aggregates real-time data from various betting and prediction markets, shows Harris with a 51.8% implied probability of winning to Trump's 47.1%.
  • Although it is too soon for accurate polling of the post-debate environment, a poll released today by Insider Advantage - based on survey data collected before the debate - shows Trump leading Harris in Michigan 49%-48%.
  • The poll is significantly more bullish on Trump than polling averages for the state (~Harris +2) and appears to support a widely reported NYT-Siena College poll released on Sunday that suggested the race may be tightening following a surge of enthusiasm from Harris, from the Biden-Harris switch.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner

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Vice Presidential Kamala Harris maintains her slight post-debate edge over former President Donald Trump, according to data from betting markets.

  • Election Betting Odds, a site that aggregates real-time data from various betting and prediction markets, shows Harris with a 51.8% implied probability of winning to Trump's 47.1%.
  • Although it is too soon for accurate polling of the post-debate environment, a poll released today by Insider Advantage - based on survey data collected before the debate - shows Trump leading Harris in Michigan 49%-48%.
  • The poll is significantly more bullish on Trump than polling averages for the state (~Harris +2) and appears to support a widely reported NYT-Siena College poll released on Sunday that suggested the race may be tightening following a surge of enthusiasm from Harris, from the Biden-Harris switch.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner

Keep reading...Show less