Bettors Divided On PM Future As Local Elections Loom

Political betting markets show little clarity in bettors views on whether Prime Minster Boris Johnson will last until the next election or be forced from office over the course of 2022. The local elections taking place across England, Scotland, and Wales on Thursday 5 May could prove an important bellwether for the PM's fortunes.

• According to Smarkets, the betting market assigns a 45.9% implied probability that Johnson will remain in office until 2024 or later, compared to a 43.1% implied probability he leaves office in 2022 (see chart below).
• The local elections taking place tomorrow would not usually be cause for market interest. However, given the pressure on the PM, an extremely poor result for Johnson's Conservatives could convince more MPs to seek a change of leadership, and therefore a potential shift in UK gov't policy direction.
• The last time the councils voting tomorrow were up for election was 2018, at a time of low Conservative support during PM Theresa May's tenure. This should limit the scale of the potential losses for Johnson's party, but nevertheless the loss of control/failure to take control of councils such as Wandsworth, Wesminster, and Barnet in London, Worthing and Portsmouth in the south and Wakefield in the north of England, would be a significant blow to Johnson's political image as an 'election winner'.

Source: MNI