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Bi-weekly CPI Inflation Data Due Tomorrow

MEXICO
  • Bi-weekly CPI data for the first half of April will be released tomorrow, with analysts looking for the headline rate to tick up to 4.50% y/y, from 4.37%, even as the core rate edges down to 4.38% y/y, from 4.41%.
    • JP Morgan look for a 0.08%2w/2w increase in headline prices, which would lift headline inflation up again to 4.6% y/y. However, this would largely be a function of a spike in raw food prices, due to adverse weather conditions. They expect the disinflation trend in core inflation to continue, albeit slowly, amidst persistent service price pressures.
    • Scotiabank expect the CPI data to show barely any deceleration in core inflation. They note that inflation trends remain ultra-sticky, particularly in core services that are running at an average annualised pace of 5.7% over the past six months. A lower-than-expected inflation reading would need to be followed by a few more to materially alter their 10% year-end interest rate call.
    • Itaú expect headline inflation to be pressured by volatile fruit and vegetable and energy prices, which will likely be more than offset by the seasonal subsidy to electricity tariffs. They also expect core inflation to ease further, dragged by core goods and other services. Annual headline inflation would rebound to 4.47% y/y, while core inflation would fall to 4.26%.
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