Biden Has Razor Thin Electoral Edge Over Trump, According To New Analysis

A new multilevel regression and poststratification analysis by Stack Data Strategy has forecast that President Biden would narrowly win the presidency if the elections were held today.

• Stack Data Strategy notes: “Joe Biden would beat Donald Trump by 287 electoral college votes to 251 if the presidential election were held today… Biden would also win the popular vote by 49.6% to 46.9%.”
• Stack adds: “However, Biden’s projected win is based on the narrowest of leads in key battleground states: in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin he is winning by less than half of one percentage point. If Trump were to overtake Biden in Pennsylvania alone, he would win the election.”
• Stack’s analysis also supports a recent polling trend suggesting that third-party candidates are more likely to harm Trump than Biden: “RFK Jr. increases Biden’s lead in key battleground states when included.”
• Joe Bedell, Head of Stack Data Strategy in North America, said: “The 2024 election cycle is truly on a knife edge. According to our in-depth research, President Biden is currently on course to cling on in the White House. But this is only by the narrowest of margins: only a percentage point in some states. The Midwest states that took Donald Trump to victory in 2016 are sticking with Biden for now, but it is effectively a toss-up in many of these key battlegrounds… This is going to be a truly nail-biting contest.”

Figure 1: Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Analysis, 2024 Presidential Election