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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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A new multilevel regression and poststratification analysis by Stack Data Strategy has forecast that President Biden would narrowly win the presidency if the elections were held today.
- Stack Data Strategy notes: “Joe Biden would beat Donald Trump by 287 electoral college votes to 251 if the presidential election were held today… Biden would also win the popular vote by 49.6% to 46.9%.”
- Stack adds: “However, Biden’s projected win is based on the narrowest of leads in key battleground states: in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin he is winning by less than half of one percentage point. If Trump were to overtake Biden in Pennsylvania alone, he would win the election.”
- Stack’s analysis also supports a recent polling trend suggesting that third-party candidates are more likely to harm Trump than Biden: “RFK Jr. increases Biden’s lead in key battleground states when included.”
- Joe Bedell, Head of Stack Data Strategy in North America, said: “The 2024 election cycle is truly on a knife edge. According to our in-depth research, President Biden is currently on course to cling on in the White House. But this is only by the narrowest of margins: only a percentage point in some states. The Midwest states that took Donald Trump to victory in 2016 are sticking with Biden for now, but it is effectively a toss-up in many of these key battlegrounds… This is going to be a truly nail-biting contest.”
Figure 1: Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Analysis, 2024 Presidential Election
Source: Stack Data Strategy
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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