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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
US President Joe Biden is now favoured over former President Donald Trump to win the presidency for the first time since October 2023, according Election Betting Odds - a site which aggregates data from polling and data from betting and prediction markets.
- The most notable shift appears to have come in prediction markets which have seen a mini-surge towards Biden in recent days. According to PredictIt, Biden is now assigned a 51% implied probability of winning compared to 45% for Trump. A considerable swing to Biden who trailed Trump by a similar margin at the start of March.
- The changing calculus is likely due to an increasingly stable economic outlook derisking one of Biden's key vulnerabilities and serious financing problems for Trump which may hinder his ability to match Biden's ad buys in swing states.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner
Source Election Betting Odds
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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