Biden Leads Trump On Betting Markets Following Arizona Decision On Abortion

US President Joe Biden has seen betting markets upgrade his chances of winning the presidential election in November in the wake of an Arizona Supreme Court decision to ban nearly all abortions

• According to Smarkets, Biden is now the favourite to win the White House for the first time since October 2023. Predition market PredictIt shows clear air between Biden (53% implied probability of winning) and Trump (46%). Note: Trump led the PredictIt market as recently as March 20.
• The Arizona ruling likely sets up a battle to include a constitution amendment on the Arizona ballot in November similar to those already in place in Maryland, Florida, and New York.
• Prevailing wisdom suggests that having abortion measures on the ballot increases turnout for Democrat-leaning voters who, whilst at the ballot box, are likely to vote for other Democrat candidates on the ballot – including down-ballot Congressional candidates and up-ballot for Biden.
• A reminder of abortion’s potent political power for Democrats came in March when Democrat Marilyn Lands (D) won a special election in deep red Alabama running on a pro-abortion and pro-IVF platform.
• Axios notes: “Abortion rights have yet to lose since the end of Roe when the decision has been up to voters instead of legislators or courts.”
• Politico notes: “Bans on all abortions with minimal exceptions are among the most unpopular ideas in America, and it’s no different in Arizona.”

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner