Biden Loses Support Amongst Black Voters

A new survey from the Pew Research Center has found that Black voters remain “largely aligned with the Democratic Party,” but fewer Black voters intend to vote for Biden than previous Democratic presidential candidates.

• Pew notes: “Black voters will play a key role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. And while Black voters remain overwhelmingly Democratic and support Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a wide margin, Biden’s advantage among this group is not as wide as it was four years ago.”
• The Black vote is considered crucial to Biden’s chances of winning two key sunbelt states - Georgia and North Carolina. Current polling suggests that Biden’s weakness with Black voters makes Trump favourite in both states. Historical data indicates that Biden would likely need the support of ~90% of Black voters to win Georgia.
• If Biden fails to shore up support amongst Black voters then it is likely his pathway to victory in November will narrow to the rust-belt states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan), giving Trump more open pathways, either through the Sunbelt, or by flipping one of the rust belt swing states.

Figure 1: Political Alignment and Voting Intention, Black Voters