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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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A new survey from the New York Times/Siena College, conducted prior to the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, has found that the presidential race remains competitive in Pennsylvania with Trump leading by 48-45. Notably, Trump leads by 48-44, beyond the polling margin of error, when "leaners" are included in the data.
- The Times notes: "By almost any Electoral College map calculation, it would be nearly impossible for Mr. Biden to win re-election without Pennsylvania."
- Concerning for White House, the poll also finds that Biden is leading by within the polling margin of error in Virginia, a state which Biden won by 10 points in 2020 and hasn't elected a Republican Presidential candidate since 2004.
- The survey also finds that Vice President Kamala Harris significantly outperforms Biden in both states - a notable finding which appears to a counter conventional wisdom which states Harris would likely struggle in the Rust Belt and states and states with large White working class populations.
Figure 1: "How Biden and Harris Fare Against Trump" Pennsylvania/Virginia
Source: New York Times/Siena College
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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