Biden Shows Strength w/Voters Who "Somewhat Disapprove" Of His Performance

Sabato’s Crystal Ball has published analysissuggesting that President Biden may have a path to winning the election through his “unusual competitiveness" among voters who just “somewhat” disapprove of his job performance.” Sabato speculates the “Somewhat disapprovers", who skew younger and nonwhite, “could decide 2024.”

• According to Sabato, despite low Biden’s approval ratings which are consistent with an incumbent loss, the group of voters who just “somewhat” disapprove of Biden, broke atypically for Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections and appears to be holding for Biden in this cycle.
• Sabato notes: “Why did Trump win the 2016 presidential election? Because he won 47% to 30% among the 18% who had an unfavorable opinion of both Clinton and Trump. In 2020, the size of this group fell dramatically. In the 2020 exit poll, only 3% of the electorate said they had an unfavorable opinion of both Joe Biden and Trump. This group is sometimes called the “double haters,” but the term is actually misleading. Many in this group do not hate both candidates, but in fact only somewhat dislike one of the two candidates. In any event, Biden leads among this group 47% to 42% in recent polling.”

Figure 1: “Recent incumbent party midterm results by presidential approval”