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BlackRock Investment Institute Shifts EM Focus to Hard Currency Debt

EMERGING MARKETS

BlackRock's research arm, the BlackRock Investment Institute, shift their emerging markets focus from local, to hard currency debt on a six- to twelve-month tactical horizon.

  • They write that they "flip their overweight to EM local currency debt to neutral and turn overweight EM hard currency debt on a six- to 12-month tactical horizon."
  • Justifying the move, they write that they had been overweight EM local currency debt since March on attractive yields from EM central banks nearing the end of their hiking cycles and a broadly weaker USD.
  • However, they began to reassess their view in July, with yields having fallen closer to US Treasury yields. They warn that rate cuts seem to have been largely priced in and could put downward pressure on EM FX, dragging on local currency returns.

That full Blackrock note found here: https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/mar...

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