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Blow To Scholz Gov't As SPD Suffers Worst Ever Result In Berlin Vote

GERMANY

The 12 February state election in the German capital Berlin delivered a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) as the party recorded its lowest ever vote share in the city since reunification. The allies of Scholz's SPD in the federal coalition - the environmentalist Greens and pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) - also saw their vote shares decline. The federal coalition has already shown signs of internal fractiousness in recent months, and this result could lead to further divisions opening on policy issues.

  • The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) went from third place to first, winning a plurality of the vote for the first time since 1999, a major upset in a city seen as leaning strongly to the political left. According to preliminary results, the CDU won 52 of the 159 seats, up from 30 previously. The SPD and Greens each won 34 seats (a loss of 2 for the SPD, a gain of 2 for the Greens). The far-left Die Linke went from 24 seats to 22, while the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained four seats, lifting its total to 17. The FDP lost all 12 of its seats having fallen below the 5% vote threshold.
  • The previous incumbent left-wing administration involving the SPD, Greens, and Die Linke still carries a majority of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus. However, given the CDU's position as largest party it is likely to have the first opportunity to form an administration, most likely with either the SPD or Greens (either of these hypotheticals would hold a majority).
Chart 1. Berlin State Election Vote Shares, 2021 and 2023, %

Source: Berlin State Returning Officer, MNI

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