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BMO analysts Ian Lyngen and........>

US TSYS/RESEARCH
US TSYS/RESEARCH: BMO analysts Ian Lyngen and Aaron Kohli expect that the U.S.
10-year note yield will close 2018 "at 2.40%, but not before a test of the
bottom of the recent range (2.00%) and the risk of an inverted 2s/10s curve as
early as the March meeting; if not, then by June." (That compared to the 10-year
note yield now at 2.425%).
- "While we've been focused on this risk since September 2017, when the Fed
signaled its intention to push forward despite realized inflation, it has become
increasingly consensus - a dynamic that always gets us nervous, but we're
nonetheless convinced of the fundamentals behind the call," they said. "If
anything, the newfound popularity of the forecast leaves us open to an inversion
earlier in 2018, which will subsequently be followed by a resteepening."
- They add the "more challenging call will be correctly timing the inversion of
the 5/30-year US Treasury curve. We're comfortable assuming that it happens
sometime during the next 12- to 18-months - with an acknowledgment that the
prior three occurrences came near the end of the Fed's previous hiking cycles,"
they said.

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