BMO On The Possibility Of Consolidation

BMO suggest that "at a minimum, the market appears poised for a period of consolidation; even if it is a short-lived one as investors test the sustainability of the move. 10-Year yields reached as low as 1.126% and while the opening gap we've been targeting at 1.096%-1.103% wasn't filled, sufficient progress was made in the direction of this resistance level that it's been reinforced in its relevance if nothing else. The transition from a bull flattener to a belly-led move proved instrumental in timing at least the initial inflection point - how long this dynamic remains in place has created another yet unknown. Our attention will be squarely on the overnight price action and whether the initial attempt to selloff during the Asian session last night are repeated. While stochastics didn't dip into overbought territory, we have seen a curl in favor of extending toward higher rates. Such price action also allows for a shorter period of consolidation before Treasury yields settle into the new equilibrium. Suffice it to say, moves of this magnitude bring the process of establishing a new range much closer to art than science. The underlying driving force behind the move is the collective belief that if the delta variant has created enough uncertainty to bring 10-Year yields as low as 1.12% then it will be more than sufficient to compel Powell to strike a more dovish tone at next week's press conference. Looking ahead to the Fed, the departure point for the market does matter in gauging the extent to which any renewed dovishness can prompt a further retracement of the recent bull flattening. At its essence, U.S. rates are in the midst of a period of price discovery as investors recalibrate rebound expectations based on a prolonged pandemic. The next several days will be key in the establishment of the new range."