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BMO See Recent Housing Momentum Settling Down

CANADA
  • From the May existing home sales data, the benchmark MLS HPI is still down 8.7% y/y, but we’ve now seen two consecutive M/M increases averaging 27% annualized. The market bottomed and started to swing higher again in March, or the minute the BoC paused its rate-hike campaign.
  • It stands to reason that the Bank’s latest 25bp rate hike will again dampen market psychology somewhat and take some steam out of recent activity.
  • We suspect that, as the BoC continues to lean against inflation (and has signalled an awareness of this rekindled housing-market strength), recent momentum will settle down and stabilize through the rest of the year.
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