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BMO: Wage Gains To "Fan The Inflation Coals"

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

BMO expects payroll gains of 450k in October, "held back only by worker shortages", in line with consensus.

  • They write: "a receding Delta wave should spur hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector, while public education jobs (amid erratic seasonal adjustment this year) could snap back after plunging the prior month."
  • They point to falling jobless claims, low layoffs, and the end of emergency unemployment benefits.
  • They are below-consensus on the unemp rate at 4.6%, "as net job prospects in the Conference Board survey were the second highest on record", while seeing above-consensus avg hourly earnings gains of 0.5% M/M, "fanning the inflation coals a little whiter."

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