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BMPS; Regaining Some Of Its (Credit) Composure

FINANCIALS

Monte Paschi (BMPS IM) 4Q23 results out with underlying profits in line with consensus but some big exceptionals have driven capital to a much better place, from a credit stance.


  • Revenues were +18% y/y (3% better than consensus), expenses fell 4% and credit losses were up a third y/y but around 10% below expectations. Underlying PBT missed consensus by just 4% but was 60% higher than the prior year. Headline figures look better but there was a big exceptional provision release and similar at the tax level.
  • In credit terms, non-performers were 3.6% of loans (from 3.5% at Sep-23). CET1 is 18.1% (from 16.7% at Sep-23) and total capital is 21.6%.
  • Bank to issue first dividend in 13yrs (EUR0.25ps) but this was expected. What those two big exceptionals do is step-change the capital base (we estimate as much as 1.6pp), allowing that dividend restart and, finally, put MPS on a more even “credit keel”.

Conf call is 0800 London time, available at https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/bjw55ux8/lan/en/

Credit BulletsBulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeCredit
Credit BulletsBulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeCredit

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