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  • The US CPI report sees the BoC decision and MPR land with a notably different backdrop.
  • June cut expectations have shifted from ~20bps priced to ~17bps at typing, whilst CORH4/Z4 implies 68bps of cuts. There are question marks over whether BoC commentary will reiterate potential differences in rate paths vs the US.
  • 2Y GoC yields sit 12bp higher on the day but the Can-US differential still slips 6bps to -61.5bps for its lowest since Mar 2023.
  • USDCAD touched a high of 1.3661, through 1.3647 (Apr 5 high) and equalling resistance at 1.3661 (Nov 27, 2023 high). A firm extension of the previously bullish outlook, further upward pressure could open 1.3729 (Nov 22, 2023 high).
  • https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/60782/BOCPreviewApr2024.pdf
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  • The US CPI report sees the BoC decision and MPR land with a notably different backdrop.
  • June cut expectations have shifted from ~20bps priced to ~17bps at typing, whilst CORH4/Z4 implies 68bps of cuts. There are question marks over whether BoC commentary will reiterate potential differences in rate paths vs the US.
  • 2Y GoC yields sit 12bp higher on the day but the Can-US differential still slips 6bps to -61.5bps for its lowest since Mar 2023.
  • USDCAD touched a high of 1.3661, through 1.3647 (Apr 5 high) and equalling resistance at 1.3661 (Nov 27, 2023 high). A firm extension of the previously bullish outlook, further upward pressure could open 1.3729 (Nov 22, 2023 high).
  • https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/60782/BOCPreviewApr2024.pdf