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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- The headline inflation projections did indeed see the recent decline in oil weigh on 2024 forecasts (WTI assumed at $75 vs 85 in Oct MPR), partly offset by the increased persistence seen in underlying inflation.
- The downward revision from 3.0% to 2.8% for 2024 as a whole likely saw a front-loaded impact considering a smaller downward revision on a Q4/Q4 basis from 2.5% to 2.4%).
- 2025 (2.2%) and end-2025 (2.1%) inflation forecasts are both unchanged meanwhile.
- (Note we’ve included bbg consensus in the table but most responses were submitted late last year – the inflation projections were probably similar to expectations)
- On growth, 4Q23 real GDP is now seen flat vs 0.8% annualized in the Oct MPR. Looking ahead the forecasts are on balance similar, revised higher for 4Q24 at 1.6% (and likely above analyst expectations) but with some payback into 2025 relative to prior forecasts (although still accelerating to 2.7%).
- The soft near-term growth outlook sees a wider negative output gap, seen between -0.25% and -1.25% in Q4, 0.5pps lower than Q3 estimates.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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