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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- The Q2 BoC business and consumer surveys show clear accelerating inflationary pressure that should give the BoC ammunition to hike 75bps (with BoC-dated OIS pricing 71bps) next week.
- A fresh record 78% of firms see 2Y inflation above 3% along with a growing share of firms seeing inflation remaining above target for at least three years (32% see 2-3 years, 8% 3-4 years and 8% 4-5 years).
- Subsequently, "some firms noted that an eventual recession, which they often attributed to higher interest rates, would support or be needed for a return of inflation to 2%."
- Further, firms expect a record 5.8% average wage gain over the next twelve months (from 5.2% in Q1) and in the separate consumer survey, 5Y inflation expectations jumped sharply from 3.23% to 4.0%, a post-Covid high but with the five-year historical range with a peak of 4.26% in 2Q18.
- Front-dated GoCs have sold off 2bps on the release to -1bps from Thursday with relatively little impact on USDCAD, only dipping marginally to leave it still -0.2% at 1.2876, but these moves can be a slow burner and continue to build ahead, especially as the US comes back in tomorrow.
Source: Bank of Canada BOS
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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