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BoC Market Survey Outdated With Analysts Since Looking For June Cut

CANADA
  • The BoC’s Market Participants Survey has a first 25bp rate cut in April, but note that it was conducted Dec 18-29 (the BoC survey is at least larger with ~30 financial market participants).
  • Since then, stronger than expected core CPI inflation in particular has helped analysts push out the first cut to June, seen in our review of analyst notes after the Jan 24 BoC decision (here) and reiterated by the Bloomberg survey conducted Jan 19-24 and released on Jan 29.
  • Biased by reaction to Friday’s US payrolls, OIS has shifted from fully pricing a first cut from June to July.
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  • The BoC’s Market Participants Survey has a first 25bp rate cut in April, but note that it was conducted Dec 18-29 (the BoC survey is at least larger with ~30 financial market participants).
  • Since then, stronger than expected core CPI inflation in particular has helped analysts push out the first cut to June, seen in our review of analyst notes after the Jan 24 BoC decision (here) and reiterated by the Bloomberg survey conducted Jan 19-24 and released on Jan 29.
  • Biased by reaction to Friday’s US payrolls, OIS has shifted from fully pricing a first cut from June to July.