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BoC Surveys Steer Analysts Towards 50bp Oct Hike But CPI Key

CANADA
  • BMO: The BOS showed a clear softening in sentiment, even as inflation expectations remain elevated, but consumer inflation expectations were likely more concerning. Importantly, Gov. Macklem had this information on Fri, and if he had a strong message to send from it he would have done so. CPI on Wed is key: a beat will lean to a 75bp hike, while consensus/lower a 50bp hike for Oct 26.
  • National: Additional hikes are needed but the weaker picture presented in the BOS, with hints of progress on inflation/prices, might lean the BoC towards a 50bp hike. Combined with a housing correction, stagnating-to-declining labour markets and a worsening growth outlook, it’s clear that rate hikes are working but inflation on Wed remains key.
  • RBC: Despite improving signs, price pressures are still too high and broad to reverse quickly. We see a 50bp hike next week, with risks skewed to the upside pending key Sept inflation data Wed.
  • TD: The BoC should be encouraged by the BOS. Past hikes are clearly having an impact but need to go further, underscored by short-term consumer inflation expectations rising. They see a 50bp hike next week, even more into economically restrictive territory.
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