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BOE DMP survey and final services PMI due at 9:30BST

UK DATA
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  • The DMP survey is due at 9:30BST. The final services PMI will also be due for release at the same time - note that we have seen upward revisions to the flash French, German and Eurozone services PMIs already this morning. If we were to see a similar size revision to the UK flash services PMI we would be close to the February print of 53.8 (with the flash for March at 53.4).
  • Note that there will be one more release of this data publicly available on Thursday 2 May, one week ahead of the MPC's next monetary policy decision and MPR are published.
  • The key components worth watching in here are the inflation expectation components and wage expectations and employment growth component.
  • The previous report (February data) saw expected wage growth steady at 5.2% on a 3-month basis. This was the eighth consecutive release that saw the 3-month average rate at 5.1% or 5.2% (and is down from a peak of 6.0% in December 2022).
  • Expected price growth in February remained at 4.3% on a 3-month basis (it has now been 4.3% or 4.4% for 3 consecutive months).
  • Realised price growth continued to slow on a 3-month average basis falling to 5.4% in the 3-months to February, from 5.6% in the 3-months to January, 5.9% in the 3-months to December and 6.6% in the 3-months to November. Between June 2022 and October 2023 the survey stayed in a 7.1-8.1% range.
  • In terms of employment growth, the 3-month average of 2.3% of realised employment growth in the 3-months to February was 0.1ppt lower than in January and the lowest since November 2021.
  • Expected employment growth slowed for the first time since September by 0.1ppt to 1.6% in the 3-months to February (it had picked up to 1.7% on the 3-months to January from a trough of 1.2% seen in both September and October 2023).
  • Note that the BOE has been placing an increasing weight on this survey over the past few months - and even more so since the official ONS labour market data started to throw up more issues.
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  • The DMP survey is due at 9:30BST. The final services PMI will also be due for release at the same time - note that we have seen upward revisions to the flash French, German and Eurozone services PMIs already this morning. If we were to see a similar size revision to the UK flash services PMI we would be close to the February print of 53.8 (with the flash for March at 53.4).
  • Note that there will be one more release of this data publicly available on Thursday 2 May, one week ahead of the MPC's next monetary policy decision and MPR are published.
  • The key components worth watching in here are the inflation expectation components and wage expectations and employment growth component.
  • The previous report (February data) saw expected wage growth steady at 5.2% on a 3-month basis. This was the eighth consecutive release that saw the 3-month average rate at 5.1% or 5.2% (and is down from a peak of 6.0% in December 2022).
  • Expected price growth in February remained at 4.3% on a 3-month basis (it has now been 4.3% or 4.4% for 3 consecutive months).
  • Realised price growth continued to slow on a 3-month average basis falling to 5.4% in the 3-months to February, from 5.6% in the 3-months to January, 5.9% in the 3-months to December and 6.6% in the 3-months to November. Between June 2022 and October 2023 the survey stayed in a 7.1-8.1% range.
  • In terms of employment growth, the 3-month average of 2.3% of realised employment growth in the 3-months to February was 0.1ppt lower than in January and the lowest since November 2021.
  • Expected employment growth slowed for the first time since September by 0.1ppt to 1.6% in the 3-months to February (it had picked up to 1.7% on the 3-months to January from a trough of 1.2% seen in both September and October 2023).
  • Note that the BOE has been placing an increasing weight on this survey over the past few months - and even more so since the official ONS labour market data started to throw up more issues.