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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Despite limited catalysts evident in the session, ECB and BoE rate cut pricing pulled back further Monday, edging to the least cuts implied in a couple of weeks ahead of a key round of UK data.
- As recently as last Thursday, just shy of 90bp of cuts were market-implied for both the ECB and BoE in the year following their respective rate peaks (currently seen as depo rate 4.00%, peak after +0.8bp cumulative by Dec 2023; Bank Rate 5.30%, after +5bp cumulative by Feb 2024).
- Now just 79bp of BoE cuts (least since Nov 1) and 82bp ECB cuts (least since Oct 31) are envisaged over the 12 months from peak.
- The first full 25bp BoE cut is still seen by Aug 2024; ECB pricing for the same magnitude reduction is June 2024.
- While there were few key macro drivers in Monday's session, catalysts abound for BoE implied rates in the next two sessions: Tuesday sees UK labour market data with Wednesday bringing the latest CPI report.
- Multiple speakers from both the BoE (Pill, Dhingra) and ECB (Lane, Villeroy) feature Tuesday as well.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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