BOE: Labour Data In Focus Tomorrow; 46bps of Easing Priced Through ‘24

BoE implied rates have drifted slightly higher alongside yields this afternoon, though still show 46bps of easing through the remainder of ’24 (vs 47bps mid-morning).

• Tomorrow’s labour market data is one of the last key inputs before the BoE’s August 1 meeting, where ~8bps of easing are priced by OIS (~30% implied probability of a 25bp cut).
• Focus will be on regular private sector wage growth. The median from the previews that we have read looks for a 5.6%Y/Y print in the 3-months to May, though we think there are upside risks to this estimate.
• This could further push back expectations for the first BoE cut, especially following the slightly higher-than-expected inflation data this morning.
• Our full preview is here: https://media.marketnews.com/UK_Data_Preview_2024_07_Release_25bdb9353e.pdf