BoE Pricing Little Changed, BoE Speak Eyed After Ramsden's Dovish Offering

The upward adjustment in the gilt remit was in the upper end of the range of the sell-side estimates that we had seen. This initially helped reverse the early London rally in core global FI markets, but Bunds have since moved back towards early session highs.

• The remit announcement seems to create some very modest underperformance for SONIA futures vs. peers, with contracts last -1.5 to +1.0 through the blues.
• BoE-dated OIS contracts are little changed on the day, showing ~28bp of cuts through the August MPC and ~57bp of cuts through year end.
• This comes after yesterday’s stabilisation/recovery in wider core global FI markets and the dovish market reaction to BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden’s Friday address.
• Flash PMI data headlines the domestic data calendar today.
• Comments from BoE chief economist Pill are also due today (12:15). Pill’s appearance will be closely scrutinised in the wake of Ramsden’s comments. We think that Ramsden is likely the most activist internal members, so don't necessarily think that Pill will follow his cues and wouldn’t expect the former hawk to be as dovish as his MPC colleague.
• Former hawkish dissenter Haskel will speak ahead of Pill (09:00), although the fact that he is close to the end of his MPC term (end of August) and his hawkish leanings probably lessen the significance of his comments.
• Elsewhere, the gilt market reaction to the remit adjustment will be eyed.