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STIR: BoE Pricing Steady Just Under 60bp Of Cuts Through Dec, Tariff Risk Eyed

STIR
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UK focus is centred on increased risk of U.S. tariffs, owing to President Trump’s intention to deploy levies on countries that use VAT.

  • Although a period before reciprocal tariffs are implemented by the U.S. (early April) seemingly provides a negotiating window.
  • GBP STIRs little changed to slightly more hawkish as a result.
  • BoE-dated OIS showing ~58bp of cuts through year-end, little changed on the day.
  • ~90% odds of a 25bp cut priced through the end of the May MPC, which is when we look for the BoE to deliver its next rate cut.
  • SONIA futures flat to 2.5 lower.
  • Expect macro and cross-market cues to dominate ahead of the weekend.
  • Little of note on the UK calendar today, with labour market (Tuesday) & inflation (Wednesday) data headlining next week.

BoE Meeting

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UK focus is centred on increased risk of U.S. tariffs, owing to President Trump’s intention to deploy levies on countries that use VAT.

  • Although a period before reciprocal tariffs are implemented by the U.S. (early April) seemingly provides a negotiating window.
  • GBP STIRs little changed to slightly more hawkish as a result.
  • BoE-dated OIS showing ~58bp of cuts through year-end, little changed on the day.
  • ~90% odds of a 25bp cut priced through the end of the May MPC, which is when we look for the BoE to deliver its next rate cut.
  • SONIA futures flat to 2.5 lower.
  • Expect macro and cross-market cues to dominate ahead of the weekend.
  • Little of note on the UK calendar today, with labour market (Tuesday) & inflation (Wednesday) data headlining next week.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less