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BofA: CPI Report Sees Risks of Earlier Rate Hikes

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Bank of America sees risks of rate hikes being pulled forward and expect a similarly robust core PCE print.


  • Both persistent and transitory forces were strong, with the bear flattening of the curve consistent with the strength in persistent components.
  • "The market response reflects the pulling forward of rate hikes alongside elevated near-term inflation, while longer term inflation expectations are little changed."
  • "The heat seen in rents and across services could make the Fed begin to sweat as they wait out the return in the labor supply and easing of supply constraints over the coming months", with risks of rate hikes being pulled forward - "stay tuned to shifts in Fed communication".
  • The data imply a "similarly robust October core PCE of +0.4% M/M and an acceleration to 4.0% Y/Y from 3.6%".
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