Free Trial

BofA: Quarterly hikes to 1% then active QT at GBP5bln/month from Nov

BOE
  • Expect the BoE to hike 25bp [this] week, in May & August. We expect passive QT starting in Feb. and active QT in Nov.”
  • BofA had previously looked for 25bp hikes in Feb22 and Nov22.
  • “Big picture is weak UK demand and supply = earlier rate hikes to a low neutral rate. QT substitutes for some hikes.”
  • Expect consultation on active QT to be announced in Aug22 and report Nov22. Expect pace of active QT to begin at GBP5bln/month initially “with an intention to speed up later” probably to GBP100bln/year.
  • Inflation forecasts: “Given the potential quantum of tightening coming quite rapidly, we expect the BoE to judge that inflation will continue slowing below target in the third year of its forecast.”

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.