MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 25

MNI BRIEF: Japan Govt Keeps Econ View, Cuts Exports

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY200 Bln via MLF Thurs; Rate Cut

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1321 Thurs; -1.92% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY235.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1321 THURS VS 7.1358

CBI Price Expectations for Three Months Ahead Lowest Since December 2020

MNI: UK JUL CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -32

Broad-Based IFO Weakness Reinforces Narrative of Recovery Stall

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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BofA: Quarterly hikes to 1% then active QT at GBP5bln/month from Nov

BOE
  • “Expect the BoE to hike 25bp [this] week, in May & August. We expect passive QT starting in Feb. and active QT in Nov.”
  • BofA had previously looked for 25bp hikes in Feb22 and Nov22.
  • “Big picture is weak UK demand and supply = earlier rate hikes to a low neutral rate. QT substitutes for some hikes.”
  • Expect consultation on active QT to be announced in Aug22 and report Nov22. Expect pace of active QT to begin at GBP5bln/month initially “with an intention to speed up later” probably to GBP100bln/year.
  • Inflation forecasts: “Given the potential quantum of tightening coming quite rapidly, we expect the BoE to judge that inflation will continue slowing below target in the third year of its forecast.”
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