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Bonds and Rates markets recover from the lows

BONDS
  • A mixed start for EGBs, Bund and Rate markets.
  • Early price action saw Bonds and rate futures fall deeper into the red, with Bund testing the July peak in Yield, printed a 1.382% vs 1.378% high in July.
  • Govies and rates have consolidated some of the early price action with no clear driver for the Bounce.
  • Likely some short term, short covering play from Fast Money.
  • Most notable moves are in the spread this morning.
  • BTP/Bund spread sits wider in early trade, and widest since the 27th July.
  • Resistance are at the July high 236.14, and the June high at 240.47bps.
  • The June high was also the widest print since 07/05/20.
  • BTP/Bund is now at 232.2bps.
  • Continued widening in the Gilt/Bund spread, albeit by just 0.9bp in early trade.
  • The spread has been widening since the 21st July, a one way no let off rally, now widest since 9th March.
  • Gilt volume will also likely be dominated by rolling into December, with first notice on the 30th, without forgetting that Monday is a Bank Holiday in the UK.
  • US Treasuries Futures outperform Europe and the Bund, with US futures underpinned following yesterday's US Data misses. Continued tightening in the Tnotes/Bund spread, tightest since 21st July, at 170.1bps.
  • Most of the action in the US will now be on rolling position into December, and the pace are expected to pick up from today.
  • Looking ahead, only notable data, will be the US prelim Durable Goods.
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