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Bonds Extend Late Highs, Jobs Data Heeded But Handicapped as Well

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Bonds lead the rebound off post jobs data lows, rising steadily higher (read: narrow upward path) through the NY close. Gist: continued sale unwind/buy support operating under the premise this morning's higher than expected Nov jobs gain of +263k (+200k est) not high enough to seriously dampen expectations of a step-down to 50bp hike at Dec 14 FOMC.
  • Fed enters policy blackout at midnight tonight (Fed speakers Barkin and Evans offered no rebuttal on jobs). Focus will be on next week Fri Nov PPI (final demand YoY 7.2% est vs. 8.0% prior) and CPI on Dec 13, the day ahead the final FOMC annc of 2022.
  • Very short end bid EDZ2 +2.75 at 95.1625, Fed terminal at 4.92% in May'Jun'23, while 2023 still weaker as prospect for return of 75bp hike remains slightly elevated. In-line, yield curves flatter, but off early wk inverted lows, 2s10s currently -6.564 at -79.275 (-79.513 low).
  • Fed funds implied hike for Dec'22 slips to 51.2bp, Feb'23 cumulative has climbed to 87.6bp (84.8bp earlier) to 4.711%, terminal bounces back to 4.915% in May/Jun'23 (4.835% pre-NFP).
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Bonds lead the rebound off post jobs data lows, rising steadily higher (read: narrow upward path) through the NY close. Gist: continued sale unwind/buy support operating under the premise this morning's higher than expected Nov jobs gain of +263k (+200k est) not high enough to seriously dampen expectations of a step-down to 50bp hike at Dec 14 FOMC.
  • Fed enters policy blackout at midnight tonight (Fed speakers Barkin and Evans offered no rebuttal on jobs). Focus will be on next week Fri Nov PPI (final demand YoY 7.2% est vs. 8.0% prior) and CPI on Dec 13, the day ahead the final FOMC annc of 2022.
  • Very short end bid EDZ2 +2.75 at 95.1625, Fed terminal at 4.92% in May'Jun'23, while 2023 still weaker as prospect for return of 75bp hike remains slightly elevated. In-line, yield curves flatter, but off early wk inverted lows, 2s10s currently -6.564 at -79.275 (-79.513 low).
  • Fed funds implied hike for Dec'22 slips to 51.2bp, Feb'23 cumulative has climbed to 87.6bp (84.8bp earlier) to 4.711%, terminal bounces back to 4.915% in May/Jun'23 (4.835% pre-NFP).