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BONDS: NZGBS: Slightly Cheaper But Off Best Levels After Strong Bus. Conf.

BONDS
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NZGBs closed slightly cheaper, with benchmark yields 1bp higher. This however masked the sharp reversal cheaper following NZ business confidence data.

  • NZ business confidence rose to a fresh 10-year high in September as the prospect of further interest-rate cuts stoked optimism: ANZ. “The economy’s response to lower interest rates could be more vigorous than is generally expected,” ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner said.
  • “If confidence about the economic outlook continues to grow rather than petering out, that certainly raises the possibility that investment could recover more quickly than we or the Reserve Bank are anticipating.” (per BBG)
  • Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s post-PCE deflator gains. The US calendar this week will see MNI Chicago PMI today, ISMs tomorrow, ADP private employment data on Wednesday, and the September jobs report on Friday.
  • The NZ-US 10-year yield differential finished 5bps wider at +49bps.
  • Swap rates closed 1bp higher.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed. A cumulative 88bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Building Permits and NZIER Business Opinion Survey.
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NZGBs closed slightly cheaper, with benchmark yields 1bp higher. This however masked the sharp reversal cheaper following NZ business confidence data.

  • NZ business confidence rose to a fresh 10-year high in September as the prospect of further interest-rate cuts stoked optimism: ANZ. “The economy’s response to lower interest rates could be more vigorous than is generally expected,” ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner said.
  • “If confidence about the economic outlook continues to grow rather than petering out, that certainly raises the possibility that investment could recover more quickly than we or the Reserve Bank are anticipating.” (per BBG)
  • Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s post-PCE deflator gains. The US calendar this week will see MNI Chicago PMI today, ISMs tomorrow, ADP private employment data on Wednesday, and the September jobs report on Friday.
  • The NZ-US 10-year yield differential finished 5bps wider at +49bps.
  • Swap rates closed 1bp higher.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed. A cumulative 88bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Building Permits and NZIER Business Opinion Survey.