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BONDS: Off Highs, U.S. CPI Seemingly Set To Have Little Impact On PCE

BONDS
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Core global FI markets fade from post-CPI highs, with the perceived lack of impact on PCE readings factoring in.

  • The USD was much quicker to reverse data-driven weakness than Tsys were to unwind the data-driven bid.
  • Fed Funds still showing ~20bp of cuts for next month, with much of the CPI-driven dovish move sticking in that contract.
  • Further out, Dec ’25 FOMC pricing has showed 66-81bp of cuts since the lead up to the data, last ~75bp, 6bp more dovish on the day.
  • Tsy curve twist steepens on the day, yields last 6bp lower to 4bp higher.
  • Bunds and Gilts 2bp wider on the day vs. Tsys.
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Core global FI markets fade from post-CPI highs, with the perceived lack of impact on PCE readings factoring in.

  • The USD was much quicker to reverse data-driven weakness than Tsys were to unwind the data-driven bid.
  • Fed Funds still showing ~20bp of cuts for next month, with much of the CPI-driven dovish move sticking in that contract.
  • Further out, Dec ’25 FOMC pricing has showed 66-81bp of cuts since the lead up to the data, last ~75bp, 6bp more dovish on the day.
  • Tsy curve twist steepens on the day, yields last 6bp lower to 4bp higher.
  • Bunds and Gilts 2bp wider on the day vs. Tsys.