Border Security Text To Be Released Next Week, No Clear Path In Congress

Senate negotiators Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and Chris Murphy (D-CT) told reporters yesterday a final bill text of the US-Mexico border security policy overhaul will “absolutely” be released next week with Murphy adding that “90%-plus” is already written.

• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) downplayed comments suggesting that former president Donald Trump’s political priorities for 2024 could undermine negotiations on border security, and subsequent passage of President Biden’s USD$106 billion supplemental request which includes funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
• However, even if the Senate lines-up behind a deal next week, there is a clear political imperative for Trump to oppose the deal as Democrats will significantly de-risk their 2024 campaign if they patch their vulnerability on the border. The border issue may be more politically valuable for Trump in light of a recent boost in voter sentiment on the economy which could take the heat out of Republican attacks on inflation.
• And then there is the ever-present problem of legislating anything in the House, let alone a major bill on the border/Ukraine in the face of opposition from Trump.
• The Wall Street Journal states in an op-ed that giving up on a border security bill, "would be a self-inflicted GOP wound," arguing that House GOP's HR2 bill can't pass and conservatives won’t get a better deal under Trump.
• WSJ writes that torpedoing the deal on behalf of Trump could hand Biden a political weapon for the campaign and Republicans, “will share responsibility for whatever happens next."