October 21, 2024 14:15 GMT
BRAZIL: CIBC Still Favours Short Tactical USDBRL Plays From Current Levels
BRAZIL
- CIBC says that on-going fiscal concerns, fuelled by the lack of a concrete action plan to reduce expenditures, are keeping the market on its toes. Nonetheless, they note that the government has frequently adjusted to the market response to certain headlines over the last few years, and they expect Finance Minister Haddad to keep any creative measures to expand government spending contained for now. They expect biweekly inflation numbers for the month of October to support the need for a hawkish BCB.
- Looking at USD/BRL, CIBC expects the BRL’s high carry and the BCB’s ability and willingness to support the currency as it moves closer to its YTD low to provide some relief to the real this week. They continue to favour short tactical USD/BRL plays from current levels.
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