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Brent Curve Backwardation Holds Strong on Tight Market

OIL

Brent forward curve backwardation remains strong on the tight physical market supplies. Crude prompt time spreads are holding steady near the top end of the recent range as the EU ban on Russian crude and G7 oil price cap approach. Europe was still receiving about 740kbpd of seaborne crude and 650kbpd of crude through the Druzhba pipeline to Germany and Poland at the end of October.

  • The Jun23-Dec23 spread last week rallied with the optimism surrounding Chinese oil demand following suggestions of a possible relaxation in the covid policy. Over the weekend the Chinese National Health Commission confirmed the current covid controls will remain in place with covid cases at a six month high.
    • Brent JAN 23-FEB 23 down -0.07$/bbl at 1.6$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 23-MAR 23 down -0.02$/bbl at 1.55$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 down -0.01$/bbl at 4.79$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.1$/bbl at 6.21$/bbl

Source: Bloomberg

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