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Free AccessBrent Set To Post Largest Quarterly Drop Since Q1 2020, OPEC+ Meeting Next Week
Brent crude is down slightly from NY closing levels. Last around $88.30, after we couldn't hold above $89/bbl through the NY session. Whilst key USD FX indices were lower, slumping equities and rebounding yields dented risk appetite. Brent is still set for a weekly gain (currently +2.6%), the first for September. However, we are comfortably down for the month and quarter (-23%). WTI is holding above $81/bbl, running out of steam above $82/bbl overnight.
- Amidst the largest quarterly drop in Brent since Q1 2020, next week's OPEC+ meeting (October 5), will be in focus around the supply outlook into year end.
- A Bloomberg survey of 19 traders/analysts indicated all but one expected a drop in production. The likes of UBS and J.P. Morgan expect a cut of at least 500k barrels per day, while RBC looks for a drop potentially as big as 1 million barrels.
- On the demand side, US data continues to defy tighter financial conditions.
- While today's China PMI updates were disappointing, in aggregate, and continue to cast a shadow over the growth outlook. Activity in the services/SME sector eased noticeably.
- Still, with the Chengdu lockdown behind, momentum may improve in September. Driving activity in the city has picked up through tail end of this month (see this link for more details).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.