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Brent to Hold in $70-$90/bbl Range: Goldman

OIL

Brent is expected to remain in the $70-$90/bbl range amid muted volatility as geopolitical risk premiums stay modest, according to Goldman Sachs on Feb 25.

  • The boost to Brent from Red Sea disruptions is only $2/bbl with no impact on crude production. Brent is forecast to average $80/bbl in 2025.
  • Prices are expected to peak in the summer at $87/bbl. The forecast is $2/bbl higher than a previous estimate on larger-than-expected draws in OECD inventories due to Red Sea disruptions.
  • Elevated OPEC spare capacity limits the upside risk for prices, while the group is likely to defend against downside risks. “Saudi Arabia has both the will and the means to support prices.”
  • OPEC+ are expected to be extend cuts through Q2 2024 followed by a gradual and partially phased out from 3Q.
  • Demand is expected to grow by 1.5mb/d in 2024 while growth in non-OPEC supply is forecast at 1.3mb/d.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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