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BRICS Nations Agree To Bloc's Expansion, Disinflation Reduces Odds Of Another SARB Hike

SOUTH AFRICA
  • Wires reported that BRICS countries have reached agreement on the bloc's expansion. The Mail & Guardian circulated a report suggesting that Saudi Arabia and Egypt have received endorsement from all five member states, with President Cyril Ramaphosa set to announce the decision this morning. The report notes that the United Arab Emirates and Argentina could also become permanent members of the bloc, while Indonesia "is said to have declined joining at the last minute." Meanwhile, various sanctions imposed on Iran are a key stumbling block for the country's membership.
  • Benign CPI data yesterday lowered the odds of another rate hike from the SARB. In the wake of the release, Goldman Sachs wrote that "the case for rate cuts is strengthening and a cut could be on the table as early as the November MPC meeting" (their baseline is for the first cut in 1Q2024).JP Morgan added an additional cut in March to their projection, while Nedback believe that the "latest inflation figure greatly reduces the likelihood of another SARB hike, even if the Fed hikes further in September."
  • Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said that Eskom needs north of ZAR200bn to expand and strengthen the grid. Speaking on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit, he said that "China will help us to solve the problem in many ways. On the generation side, China has already got existing technology to reduce the emission levels coming out of our coal-fired power stations."
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