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LATAM FX: BRL Outperforming, USDMXN Slips Below 20.00

LATAM FX
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  • Regional currencies continue to trade in a resilient manner and the late European greenback selloff and more stable equities have assisted the likes of the Mexican and Chilean pesos to rise around 1% against the dollar. For USDMXN, this has resulted in a slide below the 20.00 handle, signalling scope for a move towards the Nov 07 low around 19.76.
  • However, it is the higher beta Brazilian real that is outperforming, currently up 1% on the session. USDBRL is back below 5.75 and nearing in on last week’s lows at 5.7327. A continuation lower would open 5.6755, the Feb 18 low and the short-term bear trigger.
  • Markets may turn their focus to next week’s BCB decision, where the Copom is widely expected to deliver another 100bp Selic rate hike on Wednesday to 14.25%, in line with the forward guidance. This would be the third successive 100bp move and take total tightening since September to 375bp.
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  • Regional currencies continue to trade in a resilient manner and the late European greenback selloff and more stable equities have assisted the likes of the Mexican and Chilean pesos to rise around 1% against the dollar. For USDMXN, this has resulted in a slide below the 20.00 handle, signalling scope for a move towards the Nov 07 low around 19.76.
  • However, it is the higher beta Brazilian real that is outperforming, currently up 1% on the session. USDBRL is back below 5.75 and nearing in on last week’s lows at 5.7327. A continuation lower would open 5.6755, the Feb 18 low and the short-term bear trigger.
  • Markets may turn their focus to next week’s BCB decision, where the Copom is widely expected to deliver another 100bp Selic rate hike on Wednesday to 14.25%, in line with the forward guidance. This would be the third successive 100bp move and take total tightening since September to 375bp.