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Broadly Balanced Risk To Eurozone CPI Print

EUROPEAN DATA
  • Ahead of tomorrow’s Eurozone CPI print, German EU-harmonised CPI inflation came in stronger than expected (0.7 vs 0.4% M/M) but Spain missed notably (-0.2% vs +0.4% M/M).
  • Weighing the two implies a marginal beat of less than 0.05pp of consensus for Eurozone CPI, currently 0.5% M/M, assuming other country releases are in line with consensus and the consensus figures are broadly comparable.
  • Broadly supporting that, Barclays revised up their below-consensus headline forecast from 0.4% to 0.5% M/M after the Ger/Spa releases.
  • The French print at 0845 local now becomes the main focus, with consensus at just +0.2% M/M, whilst Italy at 1100 local is released concurrently with the Eurozone figure.
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